MELBOURNE 4.0 summary report
Launched at the Committee's annual dinner in May 2017, the MELBOURNE 4.0 summary report outlines four plausible scenarios for Melbourne in 2030 to prepare our city for the forces of innovation and disruption brought about by the Fourth Industrial Revolution. If we keep progressing with ‘business as usual’ the future of our city may not be all that bright.
Read the summary report
Harnessing the knowledge and insight from our cross-sector membership, the MELBOURNE 4.0 Taskforce used scenario planning, a method particularly suited to formulating robust and long-term strategies in an uncertain world.
The four plausible futures produced by the Taskforce generated a set of responses, or strategic needs, to the challenges and opportunities the scenarios uncovered.
These strategic needs will guide the Committee’s future agenda, with a series of tangible policy initiatives to follow. These initiatives are designed to prepare Melbourne for the unprecedented disruption facing our future economy and society out to 2030.
The four plausible scenarios for Melbourne’s future are:
Scenario 1: Urban Rust
In scenario 1, the world has seen dramatic technological change. Asia’s systems are now under severe strain, while the West stabilises and innovates. Melbourne becomes a complacent technology-taker and our talent migrates to thriving hubs in the West. Our economy dips in and out of recession as our Asian trading partners become inward looking.
Scenario 2: Asia’s Bargain Basement
In scenario 2, the East drives the Fourth Industrial Revolution, while the West has not recovered from polarisation and isolation. Australia has become a second-tier economy on the edge of a thriving Asia. Melbourne’s workforce is not sufficiently competitive and only the traditional sectors are keeping the economy afloat.
Scenario 3: Metropolitan Misery
In scenario 3, after a brief period of protectionism, Western cooperation re-emerges. Western protectionism exposed structural flaws in Asia’s systems which severely slowed growth in Melbourne’s key markets, fuelling a sustained recession. Technology failures and security issues also slow global technological progress.
Scenario 4: Riding the Wave
In scenario 4, polarisation has crippled the West, while the East builds for long-term success. Fearing social instability, technological disruption is regulated globally – the Fourth Industrial Revolution has slowed to an evolution. Melbourne coasts on its traditional strengths, but growth puts the city’s infrastructure and housing markets under relentless strain.
The nine strategic needs the Committee for Melbourne will be championing are:
Eastern seaboard transit link
Eastern seaboard collaboration
About MELBOURNE 4.0
MELBOURNE 4.0 Taskforcewas established in September 2016 to prepare Greater Melbourne for the accelerating speed of innovation and disruption that has catapulted us to the early stages of the ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’.
A series of workshops identified four scenarios for Melbourne’s future economy built on two key change drivers out to 2030 – technological change and geopolitical shifts.
Figure: Four scenarios plotted against the two key change drivers
The full MELBOURNE 4.0 report will be available soon and will outline a set of matching strategies presented by these four divergent and challenging scenarios to ensure that our city can continue to thrive towards 2030.
Taskforce members in discussion as the workshops
Thought leadership pieces
'Yarra Valley Water's contribution to MELBOURNE 4.0' - Pat McCafferty
Managing Director, Yarra Valley Water
'Melbourne the hub of technology innovation' - Scott Tanner
Chair, Committee for Melbourne and Chief Executive, Bank of Melbourne
'What’s needed to prevent a digital divide? Power and money.' - Melanie Raymond
Chair, Youth Projects
'Flexible executive roles the key to securing Melbourne’s future as a global city of choice' - Jo Fisher
Managing Director, Jo Fisher Executive
'Design Capital? Reasons why Melbourne should assume the title…' - Professor Paul Gough
Pro Vice-Chancellor and Vice-President, College of Design and Social Context, RMIT University
'How can innovation and technology assist in making Melbourne the arts, culture and design destination?' - Tony Ellwood
Director, National Gallery of Victoria
'Creating globally connected, free thinking and creative behavioural spaces (Retaining the next gen artist and audience)' - Andrew Nicol
Principal, Arts and Culture Leader Australasia, Arup
'The role of technology and innovation in improving transport and traffic management' - Harry Wijers
Managing Director, Transdev Melbourne